珠宝拍卖市场及其拍卖规律——以苏富比拍卖公司为例
Jewelry Auction Market and Rules:Take Sotheby for Example
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摘要: 通过收集整理2002年到2014年之间苏富比珠宝拍卖基本信息和全品类拍卖数据，结合这13年间的世界经济增长率，利用Excel数据分析软件对比研究苏富比珠宝拍卖额、苏富比总拍卖额、世界经济增长率这三者之间的内在关系。分析表明，苏富比珠宝拍卖主要集中在伦敦、纽约、日内瓦和香港这四个城市，拍卖主题以瑰丽珠宝为主，珠宝拍卖额在这13年间，除2008年和2011年受到国际局势的影响有所下降，一直保持持续增长，且苏富比珠宝拍卖额增长率与总拍卖增长情况基本保持一致。较之苏富比总拍卖，珠宝拍卖对市场宏观环境更为敏感。分析苏富比珠宝拍卖额和世界经济增长率的关系，发现苏富比珠宝拍卖额和世界经济增长的速度有着相似的变化规律。弹性分析进一步证实了世界经济增长速率和珠宝拍卖之间的内在因果关系，世界经济的发展直接影响到苏富比珠宝拍卖额。通过分析计算可以预测未来3年的苏富比珠宝拍卖额，在市场环境稳定的情况下，2015年、2016年和2017年珠宝拍卖额预期可分别达到6.17亿美元、6.21亿美元和6.35亿美元。Abstract: According to the basic information of the Sotheby jewelry auction，the whole data of Sotheby auction and the data of the world economic growth from 2002to 2014，the authors studied the relationship of those three data，and concluded that Sotheby’s jewelry auctions were mostly held in New York （32.0%），London（21.6%），Geneva（15.3%）and Hong Kong（11.6%）.The main subjects of jewelry auction are magnificent jewels.The sales of jewelry auction in 13years have a stable increase just like the total sales of Sotheby auction except 2008and 2011when the sales went down and were affected by global economic condition.Compared with the total sales of Sotheby auction，jewelry auction is more sensitive to the marketing strategies.It also can be concluded that the sales of jewelry auction are closely related to the rate of world economic growth.By analyzing the elasticity，the sales of Sotheby jewelry auction from 2015to 2017can be predicted.If the market is stable，the sales of Sotheby jewelry auction can be 617million dollars for 2015，621million dollars for 2016，635million dollars for 2017.
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